Does principal turnover predict teacher turnover in DC schools? Research from other states shows that teacher retention often dips following a principal departure, particularly in schools serving a high percentage of economically disadvantaged students (Bartanen, Grissom, & Rogers, 2019; DeMatthews, Knight, & Shin, 2021). OSSE reports on teacher and principal retention annually but has not previously analyzed the relationship between the two in DC schools. Let’s dive in!

This analysis uses principal retention data from the 2023-24 to 2024-25 school year and teacher retention data from the 2024-25 to 2025-26 school year to examine the relationship between principal departure and teacher turnover the following year. The data show that teacher retention was 5 percentage points lower in schools that experienced principal turnover in the prior school year, as shown in Figure 1. The increase in turnover was almost entirely explained by teachers moving to teaching positions in other schools, not changing roles, or leaving the workforce altogether.

Figure 1. Teacher retention by prior-year principal retention, SY 2024-25 to SY 2025-26

The relationship between principal and teacher turnover persisted when controlling for the percent of a school’s student population that is economically disadvantaged. Figure 2 shows that high-poverty schools saw larger declines in teacher retention following principal departure than low-poverty schools, although the interaction was not statistically significant; leadership turnover is disruptive in high- and low-poverty schools alike.

Figure 2. Teacher retention by prior-year principal retention and school poverty level

These findings confirm the importance of stability in school leadership to promote teacher retention. They also suggest that some schools require more support to retain teachers in the wake of administrative churn: High-poverty schools are likely to see the highest levels of teacher turnover.

Learn More

To learn more about educator retention, please check out our blog First-Year Teacher Retention in DC After Five Years (2019-20 to 2024-25 School Years) and our Educator Retention page. If you have any questions about these analyses, please write to us at [email protected], which is monitored by our colleagues in the Office of Research, Analysis, and Reporting (ORAR).

References

Bartanen, B., Grissom, J. A., & Rogers, L. K. (2019). The Impacts of Principal Turnover. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 41(3), 350-374. doi.org/10.3102/0162373719855044.

DeMatthews, D. E., Knight, D. S., & Shin, J. (2021). The Principal-Teacher Churn: Understanding the Relationship Between Leadership Turnover and Teacher Attrition. Educational Administration Quarterly, 58(1), 76-109. doi.org/10.1177/0013161X211051974.